Security policy and deterrence, war prevention, and other ruminations.

About

Natalie Caloca is an analyst of Indo-Pacific security with an emphasis on U.S. security policy and alliance management; middle power defense strategies; the balance of power and the first island chain; and deterrence issues and major war prevention. She is also interested in conflict prevention in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. She lives in Washington, D.C. and is a graduate of the Elliott School at the George Washington University.

Writing & Analysis

Blog

Love Letter to the First Island Chain

The first island chain isn’t a dashed line on a map, it is a region full of people and governments pursuing self-defense and a future free from intimidation. We should be behind them. (Reflections on a trip to Ishigaki and Taipei)
Jun 2026 · 8 min read
Brief Analysis

Australia’s Growing Defense and Security Role in the Indo-Pacific

Australia’s first comprehensive national defense strategy comes as Chinese coercion around Taiwan and in the South China Sea sparks heightened concerns about Beijing’s intentions and ambitions in the region.
Aug 2024 · 5 min read
Book Review

Review of “Countering China’s Great Game: A Strategy For American Dominance”

Michael Sobolik’s new book Countering China’s Great Game promotes an assertive approach to China policy that would frustrate Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative and leave no room for bilateral cooperation.
Jul 2024 · 6 min read
Blog

What Prigozhin’s Death Reveals About Russia’s Africa Approach

Vladimir Putin will plunder Africa without a cover story, if he must.
Aug 2023 · 3 min read
Blog

Trade Benefits for a Slavery Stronghold

The Biden Administration just quietly threw Mauritania a lifeline–but was it earned?
Aug 2023 · 5 min read